Long-term investment strategy investment firm
18-year bull market in the United States through the 1987 stock market crash during the 1990 Gulf War, the Russian payment crisis of 1998, LTCM bankruptcy and the new economy bubble burst in 2000, 2001, terrorist attacks. During a single day has gone through many fell by more than 6%.
long-term gains to buy stocks? long-term risk to buy stocks?
in an up economy, the buying stocks far better than other investments. Even From that 1929 high point on the famous calculation, if the holding period is 30 years, then the accumulation of wealth is held by the stock of bonds held by more than 4 times; if the holding period is 20 years, then 2 times the stock of bonds; Even if the holding period is 10 years, the stock is still narrowly mmm this is from the highest point in 1929 bought. This conclusion applies to the United States, Britain, Germany, Japan, any country. Since this is a fact, why do people still willing to buy low-return bond it. the original theory that the risk of holding stocks more than bonds large, so there must risk compensation. Perhaps this is the short-term holding, but once held 15-20 years, the actual annual rate of return on equity standard deviation is less than bonds and treasury bills; if held for 30 years, equity risk bonds and treasury bills only 3 / 4. Now behavioral psychology has been well explained the reason people do not want to hold stocks: Stocks always fall , and down 10% to inflict pain is much larger than 10% brings up the fun, people do not buy stocks in order to avoid the pain caused by this volatility.
from historical experience, even the most conservative Investors also should put stock in most financial assets. Chinese nationals will gradually realize it, this is a process of investor education. Do not forget, we have 16 trillion yuan of household savings.
long-term ownership is not that the market will not fall, but calm and wait for the fall as the United States in 1987. If 400 years, no one can judge this fall, if Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett can not judge, so that God is not prepared to you to do it, we are always waiting for such a warehouse full of the crash, will be far greater than the loss of income.
If we GDP of 9% year after year under the high growth are not long-term holdings, which is also how investment. Of course, after 10 years to buy those shares will not disappear!
investment options
clutching industry leader
we have a point: stock picking is a marathon! generally been out in front of the company to continue running greater probability of in front. In particular, in recent years the proliferation of competition from companies that stand out in front is a broad market, Yimapingchuan feeling. Therefore, our basic idea is to buy a white horse, although not to buy at the foot of the mountain, but if believe that China's political stability and sustained economic prosperity, which also has just left the foot of the White Horse it. like China Life, has been out in front in front of the; Yili, Mengniu is the same, industry warlord has been basically over. to real estate , the current domestic real estate companies listed in Hong Kong and the Mainland has more than 30, 5 years, 2-3 Sun Hung Kai inevitably produce large companies such as Vanke companies like the most likely.
, of course, long-distance running down, leading eventually may run lose. such as Wal-Mart, Kmart last lost; CC finally lost to Best Buy. but went to the front in 1985, when Wal-Mart, Best Buy in 1996 went to the front of the time, and then into Wal-Mart and Best Buy also had time.
from a statistical point of view, people exaggerate the mortality of large companies. In fact, the mortality of large companies to buy and buy The success rate of small companies as small as .1885 in compiling the Dow Jones index, the success of taking the then 12 largest stock, has 121 years, the 12 companies in liquidation, only one, an annexation, the other 10 to the enterprise is still a success: both have the same name and main industries (including GE), 5 family changed the name but did not change the main industry, a changed name and main industries, two were privatized ( privatization is not necessarily a bad thing for shareholders).
the structural adjustment of the stock market for two years, but far from complete. such as the domestic liquor, but also compensatory growth Maotai up the other, who do not pull down , With that idea is certainly not acceptable. Changyu up so that Hong Kong's dynasty is not up; in the set up so that Hong Kong is not the holy lion up, this is the industry ran out in front with the differences in the behind.
addition to the already running outside in front, of course, there will be a number of other conditions. For example, the industry must be a strong industry, Foshan Lighting is industry first, 6% market share, compared with Vanke's share also in the real estate large, but light industry growth rate of only 2% of the global and domestic, but also 5% growth rate compared to even close the real estate industry; Moreover, management should be clear, then with the Shenzhen Vanke contemporaries have been closed down Gold Fields , and the management of differences, most see clearly in the long-distance running. Suning year 2006 rose 3 times, the United States essentially never cross up there too. the country is not bad U.S. assets, primarily the management of investors not clear, only the beginning of more than 200 stores to 65% of the shares into the income calculation of 100%, 65% of the profit plan and only came in early 2006 to 35% of the shares to sell at high PE companies, is now out there injection of more than 100 shops waiting to come in, then there is a high-end electronics chain outside the Eagle, and then to spend a lot of resources management to engage in real estate.
This is our fundamental point: to buy the industry leader. to take It is not the time to say industry leaders. This is a preemptive strategy resources. is not grasping hot, but how to ensure that their move to catch the car .2007 sort of large blue-chip return issued A shares, issued in 2007 to over, not something made in 2008, the strategic resource to so many. foreign capital is very aware of this, a few bank stocks is typical of strategic resources. to the few, the next few years is that several of the.
Investment ideas
two main
investment hotspot
find high-tech industry in transition: China Microelectronics, long power technology, health benefits technology, aerospace electronics, ZTE, and Internet companies.
software : Neusoft shares, State Power NARI, the Hang Seng e.
urban rail transport, railways: Citroen logistics, Times New Materials, North entrepreneurship, Jinxi Axle, Datong-Qinhuangdao railway.
Equipment Manufacturing: Weifu Tech, Han's Laser, Shenyang Machine Tool, Hudong Heavy Machinery, Anhui Heli, CIMC, Zhenhua Port Machinery.
Biological Engineering (biomedical): Tiantan Biological, Hualan Biological Engineering.
new materials, new energy: Yantai Wanhua, blond technology, Xingxincailiao, aerospace electronics, BBCA Biochemical, Guofeng Plastic.
Media: Chinese news media, Gehua, Borui spread.
Aerospace: XAC International, Hong are Air China satellite, rocket stock.
environmental protection equipment: Canadian resources (waste), the South China Sea development (sewage treatment).
looking for 10-year survival of consumer brands
Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou old pit, Shanxi Fen, Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, Changyu, the first food, Gu Yue Long Shan, Hainan Coconut Island, Erie shares, VV shares, Chengdeloulou, Shuanghui development, Jahwa, two needles, seven wolves, Suning Appliance, Small Commodity City, agricultural products, Wangfujing, Tong Ren Tang, Dong EE Jiao, Yunnanbaiyao, Guangzhou Pharmaceutical, Tasly, Jinjiang shares, Huangshan tour, Guilin tour, OCT, CYTS, Gree air-conditioning, Qingdao Haier, Changhong, Supor.
seize the industry leader! China Merchants Securities Investment Strategy Report 2007
No comments:
Post a Comment